Worked example: from information to probability

You are attacking on a two-site map. 35 seconds have passed since the round started. Your team has gathered information without losing anyone. Here is what you know:

• a Raze was seen in mid 5 seconds ago: she used an explosive ability to stop your push, then fell back;
• a Cypher is on A: his camera was spotted in A main and one of his traps revealed a teammate of yours;
• a smoke appeared on B, on the main entrance, 10 seconds ago;
• no other defender has been seen or heard.

You have to decide where to go. Let us reason it through with the three levels and the five questions from the previous chapter.

First, line up the facts:

• there is (or was, 5 seconds ago) a defender in mid: the Raze;
• there is a Cypher who set up his abilities on A. Careful: the abilities are on A, but Cypher could be elsewhere. Usually, though, he stays near his setup;
• someone threw a smoke on B. Smokes usually come from controllers: so the defense has a controller, probably playing B or covering it from nearby;
• two defenders have not been seen by anyone.

There is already one important thing here: the count. We have (roughly) located three defenders out of five. The real question is where the other two are.

Now the estimates, one at a time:

• the Raze: she fell back from mid. Razes often play aggressively and then rotate to the nearest site. In 5 seconds she could still be near mid or heading to a site.
• the controller: the smoke on B main suggests someone wants to slow down an attack from that side. The controller is probably on B or between B and mid.
• the two missing: many standard defenses have two players per site and one who moves around. With Cypher on A and the controller towards B, the most likely split is one more on A and one more on B, or two on B if their defense is unbalanced.

This is where the habits question comes in: what did they do in earlier rounds? If they have had three players on B for three rounds, the second guess becomes more likely.

Time changes everything. The B smoke is 10 seconds old. The Raze sighting is 5 seconds old. Meanwhile the defenders could have moved.

Questions to ask:

• if we hit A now, how long does the Raze take to get there? (From mid, probably not long.)
• if we go B, the controller is already there, and the smoke tells us they are expecting an attack from that side;
• how much time is left? 35 seconds in, you still have about a minute: enough for a prepared entry, not for a long wait.

Putting it all together, a reasonable decision could be: A, because we know exactly what awaits us (Cypher's setup, which utility can dismantle), while B has a controller ready and maybe two defenders. On top of that, one player stays to watch mid and slow down the Raze's rotation.

But the decision is a probability, not a certainty. So the entry must also be prepared for the wrong guess: if you walk into A and find three defenders instead of two, you have already decided what to do (fall back, switch sites through mid, play for the delay).

Written out, this reasoning looks long, but in a match it has to take a few seconds. You learn it like this: doing it slowly outside matches, reviewing your own rounds, until it becomes automatic. Try it with one of your own rounds: what did you know, what did you think, what did you assume, who was missing?